NIGERIA’s halting experiments with democracy got a breather on May 29, 2015 when Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate of the opposition party, the All Progressives Congress, was sworn in as the country’s fourth president since the end of a prolonged military rule in 1999. As expected, the new government took off with a huge wave of goodwill as hopes were high both from within and outside the country that Nigeria was, at long last, on the cusp of a surprising turnaround after 16 years of disastrous outing by the Peoples Democratic Party.
The Goodluck Jonathan years (2010-2015) had been particularly marked by new depths of corruption, disgusting mismanagement, unimaginable cluelessness and unprecedented threat of terrorism. But what has the Buhari government delivered in the last one year – positive change as he had promised or another dismal full circle that we are used to? How should we judge Buhari, the man who, after three failed attempts, finally won the job of presiding over the affairs of Nigeria?
He mounted the saddle of leadership with insecurity threatening the corporate existence of Nigeria. Boko Haram, an Islamic fundamentalist group operating primarily in the North-East, topped the country’s security concerns. Kidnapping, armed robbery and herdsmen/farmers clashes had coalesced “…to add to the general air of insecurity in the land,” Buhari had noted shortly after he was sworn in. He vowed to live up to the challenge.
A few people, if any, doubted him. The high expectations were based on his antecedents as a major-general and his brief stint as military head of state and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. And truly, he has done a few things. The first six months of the Buhari government, during which he gave the military a three-month deadline to finish off Boko Haram and conclude the terror war, witnessed the most sustained bombings and destruction of the jihadists’ capacity for evil. The military have degraded Boko Haram in the last one year. Its fighters have been confined to the Sambisa forest and a few other hideouts from where they occasionally attack soft targets like mosques, markets and motor parks.
These efforts notwithstanding, Boko Haram has shown that it is not a sect that could be easily cowed. But while the country is making progress in the counter-insurgency campaign, the Fulani herdsmen’s menace has become another lethal threat to our security, with their murderous activities across the country. Added to this is the resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta. These indicate that things have changed in worrying ways.
Given the fact that Buhari had anchored his election campaign on the need to rid the country of corruption, it is not surprising that he has given a free rein to the various anti-corruption agencies to do their job. Without prompting, the hitherto lethargic Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has suddenly assumed a new life of vibrancy, arresting and putting on trial a number of highly politically exposed persons over one alleged corrupt act or the other. From initial investigations into how $2.1 billion earmarked for the purchase of arms to prosecute the ongoing war against Boko Haram was spent by the Office of the National Security Adviser, it has been discovered that the amount involved was up to $15 billion, as Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo disclosed.
Other steps taken to reduce widespread corruption include the implementation of the Treasury Single Account, which Jonathan initiated but lacked the guts to enforce fully. The device has so far netted N3 trillion. This is money from revenue-generating agencies of the government, which should be paid into the Federation Account but hitherto was creamed off by corrupt officials. Yet, there are concerns that the anti-graft war, so far, is a battle against a few.
But a government is best judged by the economy, and there is little reason to cheer. We acknowledge that there is no easy turnaround for the economy, but a president with a sense of urgency would have done better. In fairness to him, the Nigerian economy was in the throes of death when Buhari assumed office, having been plundered by the Jonathan administration. The foreign reserves and Excess Crude Account, which stood at $67 billion in 2007, were about $29 billion in May 2015. Between 2008 and 2014, crude oil sold for an average of $100 per barrel.
However, while he inherited a disarticulated economy, Buhari has exacerbated our economic misfortune with his legendary prevarication and studious vagueness. The lack of a concise, proactive economic strategy, even till now, is glaring. Manufacturers are short of forex to import raw materials, leading to the closure of factories and job losses after the naira fell precipitously to the dollar over the past year. On Wednesday, $1 exchanged for N350 in the parallel market. Trade is contracting and local producers are closing down due to the harsh business climate. The latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics is so gloomy. Another negative growth rate in Q2 2016 means that the economy has entered a full recession. And with the official warning that the economy has entered into a recession, Buhari should make a quick start on reform. Curbing corruption is essential, but rebuilding the economy is equally critical.
Sadly, Nigeria is not benefitting from the marginal rally in oil prices principally because Niger Delta militants have returned to bombing and sabotaging oil and gas installations. Ibe Kachikwu, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, said that Nigeria is producing only 1.4 million barrels per day, having lost 800,000 bpd to attacks. The 2016 budget is anchored on a production target of 2.2 million bpd. The impact on electricity generation is crippling. The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission reported a peak of 3,103 megawatts on Tuesday, a sharp drop compared to the 5,074MW attained in February. Even that can be described as a joke in an economy with a GDP of $568.51 billion (World Bank, 2014) and a population of 173 million. Indeed, the economy is on its knees.
There are other concerns as well. Nigeria is an obstinately fragmented country, divided by ethnicity and religion. As Ogun State Governor, Ibikunle Amosun, argued persuasively recently, a federalism that puts all the power, all the levies and all the money at the centre but puts all the responsibilities at the state is not a good federalism. But Nigeria’s skewed federalism is getting a short shrift from the President. Advocates of fiscal federalism, including Bola Tinubu, the APC National Leader, were wrong in forging an alliance with a centrist like Buhari, without securing an iron-clad agreement on how to restructure the wobbly federalism.
On the whole, one year, certainly, does not make or break a four-year term. And Buhari cannot be expected to wipe the political slate clean at once. But for Buhari to leave a lasting imprint on history, he must take several steps to inject new ideas into his government. The first is to fully accept the reality of open-market economic strategy by restarting the stalled privatisation process as the command-and-control national economic management strategy he is so much enamoured of has become obsolete. The second is to reinforce his government by recruiting genuine reformers. The third is to come down from his high horse and get more connected with the Nigerian people during these difficult times. The fourth is for his government to work out ingenious modality on how to restructure our weird federal system. Finally, it would help if Buhari keeps partisanship in check in his government’s anti-graft war.
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