Monday 25 April 2016

North Korea ready to risk it all on apocalyptic nuclear strike as country crumbles

NORTH Korea stands on the brink of total collapse — and in its desperation threatens to start a new world war.

Kim Jong-un stands before a North Korean missile launch and a nuclear explosionDESPERATE: Kim Jong-un has no options left but a last-ditch nuclear strike
Amid multiple missile tests, the  as tensions reach boiling point.
Yet it's teetering on the verge of collapse and , with food running so low that even vultures won't stay there.
Now, with even , the missile-mad nation stands poised to force its old ally back onside by provoking a nuclear conflict with America.
North Korean missile parades in Kim Il-Sung squareGAME CHANGER: North Korea has developed the Taepodong-class missile to hit distant targets
Victor Cha, who advised President George Bush on North Korea, said Kim Jong-un would move closer to launching an apocalyptic nuclear strike as his country crumbled.
In his book, The Impossible State, he compares the tubby tyrant to a down-on-his-luck gambler who gets more willing to risk a double or nothing bet as his losses pile up.
"The dangers stem from the overall desperate nature of the regime, given their isolation, opaque dictatorship, and tendency to communicate with the world through violence rather than through diplomacy," he writes.
"When one combines this with the burgeoning weapons capability, including missiles, nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, the chances of North Korea's lashing out are still, unfortunately, very real."
Chinese aid enters North Korea and Chris OgdenDOLE STATE: China provides aid to North Korea but grows tired of its neighbour says Chris Ogden
Asian security expert Dr Chris Ogden told Daily Star Online that a final desperate act of violence was the only option the communist country has left.
He said North Korea is "on the dole" in the international system and has no real purpose, income or skills besides threatening its enemies with nuclear fire.
"All other powers - most significantly China - have now lost patience with Pyongyang," he said, "and it appears that its leaders can only draw attention to themselves through acts of military flexing, which are very dangerous to regional security.
"A final desperate lashing out is what many analysts would fear, as that is basically the only option that North Korea has left."
Victor Cha negotiates with North Korean diplomatsNEGOTIATING: Victor Cha, foreground, during discussions with North Korea on denuclearisation
And the inevitable collapse of the country is coming soon, according to Mr Cha, who predicts a "major crisis" in Pyongyang under the next US President.
It could be mere months, in fact, because North Korea won't outlast a year with no Chinese help, according to Beijing officials.
Now that China is joining in on the harshest sanctions the DPRK has faced in decades, Kim Jong-un has lost his last lifeline.
As well as coal and oil, the sanctions stop the flow of luxury goods into the country, hitting its top brass right where it hurts.
Forced to pick favourites who can have what's left, dictator Kim risks the wrath of those who go without and raises the risk of a coup against him.
This could be another reason for his explosive aggression towards his enemies, said Mr Cha — he's showing his generals who's boss before next month's party congress.
"The danger of course is that there could be a miscalculation or an accident that could spiral into a crisis," the former Whitehouse advisor told Daily Star Online.
Meanwhile, the regime's iron grip on information is said to be "rapidly dissolving" with people learning about life on the outside using smuggled TVs and radios.
Mr Cha describes meeting former South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, who saw the violence of his northern neighbours as a sign that the end is near.
"He believed these attacks were out of desperation, given the regime's terrible state. He believed the DPRK was on its last legs, and losing legitimacy among its people.
"He talked about the widespread discontent stemming from the increasing trickle of information that is seeping into the country.
"The more the North Korean people learned, the more the regime's leadership had no future," his book recounts.
North Korea Unha-3 rocket prepared for launchDANGEROUS: North Korea insists its Unha-3 rocket is for satellites, but few are convinced
Unable to feed its people, the government has been forced to allow basic markets, making them even less reliant on the regime.
Yet Kim is scared that allowing further freedoms will spell his doom, so he's doubling down on communism — and it's a recipe for disaster.
"The North Korean leadership faces in its own minds a fundamental reform dilemma," writes Mr Cha.
"They need to open up to survive, but in the process of opening up, they unleash the forces that lead to the regime's demise."

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